Yanbian Longding vs Jiangxi Dingnan United

Tier 2 prediction (highest data quality at 664 data points) gives Yanbian Longding a 25.8% win probability but their recent form is clearly superior: WLDWD with 9 goals scored vs DLDDL for Jiangxi who have won zero of their last 5 and conceded 12 goals. Odds movement has drifted toward away (home shortened from 1.67 to 1.90), suggesting market overreaction, but home form advantage remains the key differentiator. Away side's 0% win rate in last 5 is a significant red flag.