Ararat-Armenia vs Urartu

Tier 2 prediction gives Ararat-Armenia a 50.4% home win probability with 812 data points, the highest home win probability among all fixtures with reasonable odds. Home form shows 3W-0D-2L in last 5 with 11 goals scored, while Urartu have been poor away (1W-2D-2L, conceding 9 goals in last 5). Significant odds movement from 1.67 to 2.03 for the home side represents a market overreaction, creating value at current price given the model's 50.4% implied probability versus the bookmaker's implied 49.3%.