Pisa vs Empoli

Pisa have been in dreadful form (LLLLL, only 2 goals scored in last 5 matches, 11 conceded) suggesting a low-scoring, defensively disorganised side that struggles to create chances. Empoli are also modest in attack (4 GF in last 5). Combined, both teams have averaged under 2.5 goals per game in recent outings, and the Coppa Italia context often produces cautious, low-scoring affairs. The Under 2.5 at 1.73 implies ~57.8% probability; our assessment puts the true probability closer to 63%, generating a positive edge.